The small Central Asian nation of Kyrgyzstan, which lies on the border between China and Russia, was hit by a mysterious cyber-attack ten days ago which took out more than 80% of its internet capacity. The country's two main internet service providers are now back online, but the source of the attack remains mysterious.It is known that the attack originated from Russian IP's, and an article in Wednesday'sWall Street Journal attributes them to a Russian-based "cyber-militia." Russia was blamed for similar denial-of-service attacks on Estonia in 2007 and on Georgia during last year's brief war between those two nations. However, theJournal was unable to obtain comment from Russian, Kyrgyz, or United States officials.
The United States is far more deeply involved in Kyrgyzstan than is generally recognized and has been using an air force base there since 2001 to supply its operations in Afghanistan. One theory about the cyber-attack links it with recent Russian pressure on Kyrgyzstan to terminate US use of that base.
Both Reuters and Agence France-Presse recently cited Kyrgyz sources as saying that a statement announcing the closing of the US base in exchange for Russian financial aid was imminent.
However, General David Petraeus insisted during a trip to the region last week, "We look forward to discussing the future of the base there and we certainly have no plans to change anything, frankly."
Following talks with the Kyrgyz prime minister, Petraeus added that "we did not discuss such possibilities at all" and said that a team of US officials would be arriving in Kyrgyzstan shortly to discuss expanding US use of the base.
A second, very different, theory about the attack is that it may have represented an attempt by the Kyrgyz government to clamp down on its own fledgling opposition movement.
The previous Kyrgyz head of state was overthrown in 2005 -- in an uprising heavily supported by American non-governmental organizations, such as theInternational Republican Institute and the National Democratic Institute -- but now discontent is growing again.
EurasiaNet noted last week that "as Kyrgyzstan’s feeble opposition unites into a new coalition, its leaders are coming under increasing pressure from the authorities. The state general prosecutor has launched criminal investigations involving at least four opposition leaders in recent weeks. ... Analysts are calling the inquiries politically motivated."
According to Wired, "during Kyrgyzstan's 'Tulip Revolution' in 2005, demonstrators often depended on cell phones and text messages to organize."Wired suggests that the Kyrgyz authorities may now fear that the internet will be used in the same way.
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